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Your Prius Won’t Save You: Questions for David Owen, Author of The Conundrum

We have a problem. Faced by the civilizational challenge of climate change, we have collectively responded by developing and purchasing ever more efficient phones, cars and homes. But, historically, our drive for efficiency in all things — from the wheel to the cotton gin to the iPhone — has just created new avenues for using our devices.

David Owen: We need to consume less.

David Owen, a staff writer at The New Yorker, has been worrying about this problem for years. His newest book, The Conundrum, available on Feb. 7 from Riverhead Books, pierces the magical thinking that has repackaged high-end luxury goods, such as hybrid cars, as virtuous and the idea that we can consume our way out of trouble. The only way we can forestall, much less avert, disaster is to consume less. Txchnologist talked to Owen about his new book this week. This interview was edited for length and clarity.

Txchnologist: The book reads as a manifesto of sorts for the virtues of less – less travel, less stuff, less energy. Was that your intent?

David Owen: It certainly isn’t reflected in my lifestyle or the lifestyle of anybody I know. I think what led to the book is that I don’t understand how we get to these noble goals without less. The idea that you can grow your way into lower energy use, I just don’t see how the arithmetic works.

Txch: You spend a lot of time in this book skewering liberal pieties about hybrid cars, locavorism and luxury consumption reframed as “gifts to humanity.” Has consumer society been bamboozled by green marketing?

DO: I think so. There’s a large number of people who don’t care about it at all. The Prius is still a very small part of the market and the best selling vehicle in the U.S., forever, is the Ford F-series pickup truck. It’s not even a majority of people who are self deluded in that particular way.

There’s a quote toward the end of the book from Dan Nocera, who’s a professor of chemistry at MIT, who has been working on renewable energy for 30-40 years. He says that despite all that, he hasn’t changed his lifestyle in any way. And that’s sort of the problem. We’re still Americans, voraciously consuming everything we can get our hands on.

Txch: But you say on a few occasions that you’ve been taken in by some of the marketing and you’re pretty hard on your own lifestyle. Is it a personal book in that sense?

DO: I think that I respond to things the way almost anybody does. The real forces of change are always economic. When gas is high, I drive less and when the price of gasoline goes down or I get used to the price of gas, I think about it less.

We all find ways to forgive ourselves for the most egregious things we do. I went to the Aspen environment forum last year and I’m going again this year to speak. It’s a lot of fun and you can feel good about doing it because it’s on the environment. But everybody’s there is having a mini vacation in Colorado and talking to people who basically agree with them already. You forgive yourself for the jet fuel because you’re doing something important.

Txch: I guess that awareness is the first step. You mention one fellow in particular who told you, don’t bore me with the details, just tell me what to buy [to make myself green].

DO: That was at a golf course outside Melbourne, Australia. It was another example of me flying around the world to give a talk on the environment and taking my golf clubs with me. I don’t think inaction is the product of ignorance. I think it’s often, you sort of think it through and decide, consciously or not, that you’re not going to do anything.

Txch: You talk in the book about Jevons Paradox – what is it?

DO: I was thinking the other day about the history of the wheel. Moving things around was extraordinarily inefficient before the wheel. The wheel was this tremendous breakthrough in efficiency. You’ve reduced the friction problem to a very manageable size and you can easily move things around. But that did not lead to a decline in human energy consumption it led to a huge increase. Now suddenly it’s easy to move things around, so you move more things. And that’s kind of the Jevons Paradox right there.

What Jevons said was, making things more efficient does not cause energy use to fall. On the contrary, it opens up this whole new avenues of energy consumption If you wind back the tape of civilization almost any distance, you’d see that every efficiency gain has been followed by increases in consumption rather than declines.

Txch: But not everyone agrees that this rebound exists. The late Lee Schipper believed that rebounds were relatively small.

DO: For Lee, energy is a very small part of the economy – 6 or 8 percent. But looking at it that way understates the role of energy in what we do. If we eliminated energy consumption from the economy our energy consumption wouldn’t fall 6 or 8 percent, it would completely disappear. Increasingly we are dependent on that primary energy to power almost everything. You see it directly in your personal life when you lose your power. There’s nothing you can do. You can turn on your car to charge your cellphone, as I did, but nothing else in my life worked.

Dan Nocera at MIT drew this chart on a blackboard and charted energy use and income. Basically, energy consumption is what wealth is – America is wealthy because we use more energy than everyone else. You don’t really break that relationship.

Txch: In the latter half of the book you shoot down a list of ideas – green natural gas, efficient lighting, revolutionary transformation – that others have held out as potential saviors. Did you start to despair while writing this book?

DO: The first thing I was thinking was, well I hope I’m wrong. But if you look back and say, okay more efficient lighting, that’ll cause our energy consumption go down. But the history of lighting is the history of more efficiency increases in lighting. We have not turned those increases in efficiency into reductions in consumption. Instead we’ve used them to leverage more consumption.

Txch: You end with a list of prescriptions for actually effecting change. Most them involve reducing consumption, but there’s little evidence we can do that. Do you have hope?

DO: The problem is so huge that it requires coordinated action by everybody. Say Americans decided we’re going to impose these really high taxes on fossil fuels. Unless the rest of the world does it too, we just make energy cheaper for somebody else. The Chinese or the French or the Germans. Somebody else will burn the stuff you decide not to burn.

How good would the human race being at leaving several centuries worth of coal in the ground while we shiver in our solar powered, very small houses. It’s hard to believe it would actually happen. There’s some point in the argument that I don’t know what the logical next step would be.

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Comments

  1. Matteo Kausch

    I don’t know whether as a society we will be able to cope with the environmental challenges we are facing. I am convinced however that articles (and I’m speaking about this interview, not the book) such as this one in fact diminish whatever chance we have. For a chance of success we need more inspiration and less negativity, more rallying calls and less defeatism. We have to spread hope (however faint) and a sense of common purpose, not fear and guilt, because the former can bring us together to achieve great things, while the latter cause us to isolate and act selfishly. As environmentalists I believe it is our task to chart out possible courses towards a sustainable global society and motivate people to embark on these courses. Reduced consumption is an obvious part of this equation, but the author of this article neither draws a clear picture of how this would work, nor does he provide any motivation for anyone to act on his writing. All he does is wallow in (self)criticism and despair. I ask myself, why does he write at all?

  2. Rod Adams

    If it were not for the fact that I have a deep understanding of nuclear fission energy and the politics that have surrounded nuclear energy since its discovery in the 1930s, proof in the 1940s and widening application from the 1950s-1980s, I would be a very depressed man.

    Like David, I have lived a high energy consumption American lifestyle for more than half a century. I am well aware of the limitations of fossil fuel. I have studied every non-nuclear alternative sufficiently to realize that none of them have the potential to change anything regarding our access to energy.

    My advantage, however, is that I spent most of the 1980s going to sea in submarines that ran for more than a decade on a mass of fuel that is just slightly more than my own body weight.

    Pound for pound, uranium contains 2 million times as much heat energy as the best hydrocarbon, yet releasing that heat does not produce any SOx, NOx, fine particulate, mercury, CO, or CO2. The waste from fission is just as compact and concentrated as the fuel. Fission is not limited to using uranium; thorium is also available and is four times as abundant as uranium.

    The primary reason we are not using fission more is that the people who hawk hydrocarbons LIKE their business. It is the source of massive wealth and political power, so they work very hard in many ways to keep the barriers to entry as high as possible for nuclear energy projects.

    My message is that we really can have our wealth and spread it to many who do not have it today. We will get there by consuming a lot less material because fission gives us access to material with 6 orders of magnitude more energy for each unit mass. That energy density can sustain a substantial improvement in human prosperity for thousands of years.

    We really can do more with less, but only if the less is a lot better at what it is supposed to do. The capability gap between hydrocarbons and fissionable material is analogous to the difference between vacuum tubes and modern microprocessors.

    Rod Adams
    Publisher, Atomic Insights

    PS – As I was getting ready to post this, I noticed that this site is sponsored by GE. It is hard for me to believe that a company that has been involved in nuclear energy since its inception would employ a writer who allowed an interviewee to be so doomy and gloomy about energy supplies without even asking about nuclear fission.

  3. Phred

    From what I read in this snippet, I think that David is both right and wrong. He is right in that when you look at the macroeconomic point of view, increases in efficiency, i.e. the wheel, car, train, bus, etc have caused us to consume more energy, however, he is also INCORRECT when he says that we, as a nation, cannot actually decrease energy consumption WITHOUT affecting our lives in a meaningful way. One of the biggest points here is more efficient light bulbs. While I absolutely abhor CFLs for the mercury they contain and the potential nightmare we’re going to have down the road, LEDs will eventually come down in price enough to make substantial inroads and they alone have the potential to greatly affect energy usage in homes across the country. They will take some number of decades to proliferate, but it will come to pass.

    Of course, there is actually a third angle to look at this… By that, I mean – do we look at “gross energy consumption” of the population, or, do we look at consumption of energy produced by other segments of the population. What do I mean? Well, a couple example are in order. In the second instance, I am talking about the obvious use of energy – we consume oil in our cars and electricity to run our house. That energy is provided to us by the likes of oil companies, the electric grid, etc. In the first instance, however, once I get setup with a solar or geothermal connection to my house and some type of alternate method of generating electricity, I can run totally “off the grid” both for my electric needs as well as house heating needs.

    In the extreme view, I can then purchase an electric automobile, charge it at home, and be very much energy independent. Sure, I am tethered to my house at 1/2 the range of that electric car, but for the vast majority of my travel, that would be absolutely fine. I do think that 100 miles is a bit “short”, but even with a range of 40 miles one direction, I can complete probably 95-99% of my typical trips. In the few instances where I need to go further, I can either borrow or rent a normal car, or, make provisions to charge my car while I’m on my trip. This does mean that I am not truly cut off from the public energy web, but if it were to go down, the affect on my personal life would be minimal – well – with the biggest exception being that, without electricity, cable tv and my internet connection would probably be gone as well… If I wanted to push the envelope in that instance, I could opt for a satellite connection!

    As far as business energy consumption goes, all one has to do is drive down a commercial strip of road at night to see energy being wasted. Every sign is fully lit, and, indeed, even the interiors of many commercial buildings are fully lit at night. This can be taken care of by either higher commercial energy rates *OR* (and I hate to even suggest this) legislation forcing businesses to turn off signs and reduce energy usage during off-work hours. Of course, why wouldn’t ANY business want to reduce costs? Where I work, lights are already on a timer system whereby they turn off at some point in the evening, but, with motion sensors in place, will turn back on should you be working late, or, when the security guard makes his rounds.

    So, again, I think Dave is at least partly wrong because much of the new research actually centers around methods of reducing energy usage, or, at least, reducing energy usage for energy that must be “mined” (i.e. coal, natural gas, oil).

    I personally am a big proponent of Nuclear Energy. I worked on the proposed Clinch River Breeder Reactor project many years ago. Utilizing this technology we could have thousands of years of energy at our disposal. Newer reactors are safer with better technology – just look at how bad the first cars worked and compare them to today. The same is true for virtually all electricity generating plants. There are always those who are afraid of what they don’t understand and Nuclear will always have it’s detractors… To this argument I just say that indeed, the Amish still don’t use gasoline cars either – you need to innovate or stagnate.

    The biggest problems we have encountered to date is that many of these alternative energy potentials simply are not economically viable. I researched replacing half of my electric power usage with Solar panels in a grid-tied system (i.e. no battery – the meter would actually run backward during the day). When all was said and done, I would have had to pay about $50k to replace half of my energy usage. If I took that $50k and invested it, receiving a modest 6% return, I can easily pay for (more than) my entire electric power usage. This just underscores the problem that we are encountering today. The exact same argument can be made for geothermal, which I also investigated!

  4. jerry dycus

    While true the public still has a very long way to go, it’s not hard living far better using far less.

    I use far less energy,materials than 99% yet do most everything others do like my sail/power/electric boat, my EV sportswagon, EV MC, eff home from those eff gadgets like video speed internet, laptop computer I now get 100x’s the info at 20% of the energy, materials of an old TV.

    Adding up my total personal energy bill comes to $22-45/month electric/$.13/kwhr supplies me with heat, A/C, cooking, transport, shop, etc I need bought from RE sources because my homesite isn’t RE friendly.

    This summer I’ll cross the country at about 200mpg comfortably just because I can and to show others how to live very well on far less work, money leaving time for eff travel, fishing, family.

    Sadly I had to build most of this stuff from scratch because it is not available in the US. Why?

    The problem is not techincal but political/cultural. Other than computer tech all the rest the tech is 40-100 yrs old like the EV drive systems plucked from a forklift.

    So all you can work your bu– off for what? Because some corp told you you had to have it? Buy or build quality eff things you keep for 20 yrs to a lifetime or even generations. Convert or build your home to use far less energy as the cheapest energy is that you don’t use.

    If you do your own legwork, shopping for RE and do some of the labor, you can do a home RE for 30% of present prices which have already dropped a lot.

  5. Kit P

    The Conundrum I have in my life is getting journalists at the NYT to stop making a living by misinforming the public.

    I am a mechanical and environmental engineer who has worked in the energy industry for 40 years. Engineers love problems and providing energy and protecting the environment is one that we have solved. I am not saying there have not been isolated failures. In the US we have 4 nines when it comes to reliable power. That is to say the grid provides us power 99.99% of the time. Yet David Owens mentioned losing power not having relative to having it 99.99% of the time is remarkable.

    If you look at the number of people who actually work in the energy industry is a relatively small group. We do such a good job that we actually have to go look for a ‘conundrum’. For example two posters mention mercury. I have dropped a CFL on the kitchen floor. I collected the glass and tiny amount of mercury with a paper towel. Problem solved because my children will not be exposed and the modern landfills have system that collect gaseous and liquids that could escape into the environment.

    My local paper had a story about warnings about eating fish from the state’s waters. That sounds like a business opportunity for environmental engineers. When I checked, the problem had been solved 20 years before. I did some more checking. I could not find any problems with mercury that had not solved.

    Providing energy when and where we need it is not a problem. Use it guilt free but do not waste it.

    • Slow Jim

      The other problem you have is that the writer isn’t from the New York Times but the New Yorker. You should really make sure your opening sentence is generally correct.

  6. Dan Staley

    As always, it comes back to population and consumption. We are reminded for the millionth time that to reduce our impact, the following framework is key:

    I = P x A x T

    Impact = population x affluence x technology

    We must reduce the terms on the right side. Our human nature won’t allow us to change what we are.

  7. Kevin

    The models of infinite growth only lead to inevitable collapse. We see it in politics, economics and biology. There’s always another cliff – it’s just odd that we run so fast for the edge.

    Excellent interview. Covers a lot of the concerns Grier Raggio talked about in his failed bid for Congress two years ago.

  8. davo

    Owen is not depressing, unless you think the truth is depressing. Aside from fission being totally impractical, the conundrum is simple: coordinating new energy infrastructures and technologies and people simply using less equals one thing and one thing only: government. And in our global economy that means a one-world government. Because people simply will not change the world voluntarily; they will not drive the speed limit voluntarily, they will not pay taxes voluntarily, they will not reduce consumption voluntarily – as a society/group/unit without government regulation and control (in the form of laws and enforcement,) which ultimately means losses of personal freedom – and on a worldwide scale. I’m not saying good or bad, like the author, I’m just saying what is. Writing is not necessarily meant to be uplifting. It may also be used simply to convey information. And Owen is simply another voice confirming the facts with reasoned argument, as authors often do. However, I don’t think people will give up their personal freedom(s) to save the world, economy or ecology, without a fight. The message? There is no solution. It is not depressing to realize the horse is lame and must be shot; it is bracing. Take that to heart and prepare for the consequences, for only then will you be at peace with, and ready for, the eventual outcome.

    • Kit P

      The truth is very encouraging. If you take the US for example, a small amount of energy provides a large amount of freedom. Only a few these day heat with wood choosing to use their time for other things. With a gallon of gasoline, I have the freedom to live 20 miles from where I work without having to be bothered with public transportation.

      The truth is that nuclear power is very practical. The fleet of 104 operating reactors provide 20% of our electricity. Nuke plants are so practical that the navy can even teach a liberal arts major like Rod Adams to supervise the operation of a submarine nuke plant with technicians that are a few years out of high school.

      Add in coal, natural gas, wind, geothermal, biomass, and solar, we get numerous choices for making electricity. While deciding which is the best choice for a given situation cab be daunting if you are not trained to make such an evaluation but having choices is a good things.

      Not to pick on a place like NYC but the freedom to live in a large city means you have to depend on others to provide energy. NYC gets electricity from coal plans in West Virginia and nuke plants that are closer. An alternative might be millions of wind turbines off shore. While a few hundred might be practical, a few million may not be very practical.

      This freedom thing is very nice too. I am free to work in a nuke plant. I loved my job at a nuke plant because it is one of the places I could work as an engineer and not work downtown in a big city. As a practical matter, I have no problem making power any way society want to do it. Power engineering is pretty much the same where ever you go.

  9. Dave Eaton

    We do use more as we get more efficient. But we get more from it. There isn’t a scintilla of evidence that we would be better off living as the prophets of doom suggest. None. It might be a complete nightmare, it might create problems we have not considered. Refusing to understand how good we have it is just perverse.

    Key quote “”The problem is so huge that it requires coordinated action by everybody.” It’s not established that it is a problem compared to a primitive lifestyle, but I’ll grant that for argument’s sake. That it REQUIRES coordinated action by everybody is where the fascism live, I suspect. Someone will have to be in charge. And we will have to obey. I’m not convinced I would not want humankind to have a shorter, freer span of time than a sustainable hell.

  10. ivan vamos

    there are some actions that will clearly help however. take a bike or walk for some short trips and enjoy the healthy ride. Don’t fertilize your lawn, and mow it less or keep a smaller lawn. Eat less meat, etc.
    You may not save the world, but you will help a bit.

  11. William H

    David failed to mention saturated use. When all the lights are on all the time and you improve efficiency, energy usage declines. Same with driving, vacationing, etc. I believe that in the US we are near saturation for many substantial energy consuming activities. My new GE kitchen, better windows, Trane Heat pump, and smart thermostat, have reduced energy consumption by about half. I would have lived the same with or without the savings. Eating seems to be a case for his theory. We are getting more and more obese, using energy to grow more food and causing self-inflicted health problems that are individually and collectively extremely expensive, energy intensive, debilitating and from personal observation painful. I don’t see a methodology that would account for even most consumption

  12. Bill

    The solution is quite obvious…What we need is more government to control more areas of our lives.

    This “conundrum,” as it only now appears in this book, was immediately understood by millions and millions of the much maligned “deniers” as soon as the supposed “green solutions” started appearing about the time the Al Gore/global warming hysteria virtually took over the world’s leftist’s minds. This, of course, includes the Democratic Party here in the USA.

    And now, after so long a period, they are only now beginning to realize their “solutions” would have accomplished nothing??
    In my mind I keep a list of those that fell for such emotional foolishness.

    Now that so many “experts” are revising their once ironclad theories, what we are seeing is the hysteria of global warming morphing into the hysteria of sustainability – a movement that will be led by the same recently-debunked-but-now-oh-so-newly-aware globe trotting elites.

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